How exactly the price movement and can evolve? There are people who said that price movements depend on supply and demand, there is also the airport say if that pushes the price, and also is one great player, or another.
Here, I will try to explain the evolution of the price of the model through some models. In each model, the price of the stock is motivated by the parties, the people or the various factors.
• Models of JCI Engines or Large Caps
In this first model, the price moves due to the interest of stakeholders in the market against the prospect of the economy centered on the world economic scene of Indonesia and Asia regional economy or.
Once they have entered the market (read: buy shares in Indonesia) with the use of JCI as a point of reference. Because JCI index is a number that is calculated using the weighted, average method of large-cap stocks will have an effect on the movement of the JCI. For this reason, they make a buy position, simply see capitalization. For example, we can see what happens in July 2013 yesterday: Bank Indonesia rate rises, inflation is high, but rather to buy shares in foreign banks. They buy bank stocks not because good prospeknya, but since stocks are stocks with the largest capitalization.
The players in the market: more often foreign financial, hedge funds, mutual fund managers of investment fund or funds of pension, while that financiers can also and some were a similar strategy.
Prediction of price movements: relatively easy because we could use the prediction of the regional index as a guide.
Event, it is important to keep in mind: publication of economic figures, the economic news (local, regional, global).
• Blue Chip Model
In this model, move the market leading Blue chip was analyst recommendations farm securities. These recommendations from securities analysts (in particular, big titles, can be both local and foreign) and then be heard by tracks client that is none other than the pension funds, managers of funds, institutional investors, major retailers, as well as retail customers. The recommendation is that it will guide actions under the direction of the recommendations. If a recommendation to buy, the price goes up above, sell recommendations, will decrease the prices. In this model, the market capitalization of blue chip factor is indeed still have a very important role as securities analysts, they should pay attention to the problems of liquidity capitalization and actions that often become their investment needs of clients.
Analysts - analysts are almost completely is the analyst of high integrity. Therefore, in general, his opinion is neutral. Conflicts of interest sometimes arise (companies 'orders', superiors or colleagues), but relatively rare. The analysis is often done with "good intentions". Although the result (price after the publication of the report mentioned movement) are often still submerged (review of starting to buy, as well as prices fall and vice versa).
The main drivers of securities analysts: key recommendations
The main market participants: managers of mutual funds, pension funds, institutional investors Fund.
Prediction of price movements: is relatively easy, because the culprit was a rational financial.
Nature: recommendations made by people who have no positions, making it more objective.
• Exotic Action
It is exotic in bag with a capitalization of small and medium-sized, often derived from both industry to the attention of the market, but they have a business model or fundamental prospects which is OK. I'm talking about as exotic as good fundamentals, with share this should often be 'discovered' by fundamental investor by retail/wholesaler, funders institutional until finally interested in low «nyebur», purchase of these shares. Its main attraction is the "interesting story/history", funds manager interested in the continuation of this action. Flame the history here, it could be a new business model, its performance or actions with fundamentals, but of a small industry that was ' on display.
One thing keep in mind here is: because rekomendasinya comes from fellow traders or investors, also have a position. They could have been used to buy at a price less then gives recommendations to give a position of purchase, higher than prices, make a buy position. Recommendations on the actions of this type, usually subjective. It may be an exaggeration, it could also not, but even so: subjective. So... would you can into his trap: buy, when they are sold.? You can get into his trap.
Key players: investor/Trader is basically a rational snapper or private capital as the initial aggressor, followed later by mutual fund managers Fund and fund institutions.
Source: Recommendations of investor/Trader basically before the follow-up by securities analysts.
Prediction of price movements: while still in the initial phase, the predictions of relatively difficult technically. But when volumes began to enter the market, the trend began to emerge, begins to unreadable, there are new predictions started to feel easy to get resistant suport.
• 'Actions Donut' Model
Affected by this type of model of movement, it is usually a basic with a meal or even actions tend to be ugly or it could be shares with good fundamentals, but the owner of the Kuiper belt (less education and socialization). Often, in fact fundamental actions with the ugly, assets or as if BLM wants there are values created rumornya, continue start dimain-mainkan price.
When technical signals have begun to emerge, a technical operator began in... In this sense, the role of the actions of the agents, the stove is very important. This airport is the village of bread which has collaborated with the protagonists. Task is ensure low well informed financial discounts, to buy shares in it. The main screen runs to Board of trade in this material.
With its attractive price movement captivated the interest on capital "lam - lam" markets go. After that the position of investors bought retail, they also serve to keep the financiers of this detail nyangkut, remained in stocks, when bandar or traders from driving prices.
The behavior of these large traders, often seems very clear and here are a few standard things are often including:
1 provide recommendation to purchase underlying reasons in the evolution of prices in the medium term was itself broken
2 shout "oversold" when people begin to think about reducing loss
3. a talk technical at the beginning, but when prices started to become a trend downward, they say that the fundamental reasons for the budding financiers want to hold positions and you didn't waste cutting.
Stove cooperatives albums will continue to assist bandar utama volume continued to enter the market. If necessary, also designed the hot story of rumores-rumores become. Transmitters also help sometimes with "the refutation of rumors of the issue" after the price of enough spending. If your story is hot, sometimes up to believe that these stock prices began to enter the prices by the second type "movement.""Well... some fundamental analysts this idiot, sometimes also eaten this scenario and I think that ' there is value in these populations", which then reported research. In fact, are often issues/rumor is empty.
Then, what share would play? He failed to qualify the type of price movements of shares that one?
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